$2.4b in vehicle imports forecast for 2026 — but who's actually buying right now?

The Central Bank says Sri Lanka could spend up to $2.4 billion importing vehicles this year, after Q1 alone hit close to $600 million, following on from 2025's roughly $2 billion splurge. On paper that looks like a boom, but dealers are quietly saying stock is piling up because fewer buyers can clear the down payment after loan-to-value limits were tightened and the import surcharge pushed landed prices up. One side says this is healthy — the market is finally pricing honestly after years of pent-up demand distortions, and a slowdown now just means a correction, not a crisis. The other side says ordinary buyers, not speculators, are the ones getting squeezed out while importers and leasing companies still make their margins work some other way. If imports keep climbing while actual registrations fall, who's really absorbing all this stock, and at what price? Have you held off a purchase this year because the numbers didn't add up, or seen a dealer quietly drop price just to move inventory? Mekata price eka adu karala dakala thiyenawada, nattam dealers margin eka vena kohomahari recover karanawada kiyala therenawada?